Democrats Win Congress, But Insiders Say Bitcoin’s Real Boss Is The Fed
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, Bitcoin fell to about $76,200 before recovering above $78,000, and crypto insiders say inflation, oil and Fed policy matter more.
Key Takeaways
- Democrats are projected to win control of both the House and the Senate
- Bitcoin dipped to about $76,200 around 3 a.m. UTC, then recovered to $78,268 by 8:30 a.m. UTC
- Experts say oil prices, inflation and the Fed matter more to Bitcoin than who runs Congress
- Crypto rules keep moving through regulators even if new laws stall, they say
Major U.S. networks projected Democrats would take control of both chambers of Congress after Tuesday’s vote. Bitcoin fell through the night as results came in, hitting its low near $76,200 at about 3 a.m. UTC, CoinGecko data shows, before climbing back to $78,268 by 8:30 a.m.
Bitcoin Still Trades Like A Tech Stock
Speaking with Fathom News, Ryan Kirkley, CEO of payments network Global Settlement Network, said Bitcoin moves with tech stocks because big investors treat it “as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset.”
“The far bigger drivers are the war in Iran and interest rates,” Kirkley said. “If energy shocks keep inflation sticky and rates stay higher for longer, crypto will likely keep trading alongside equities. If the conflict de-escalates and the Fed has room to ease, both should benefit.”
Courtney Olujobi, principal at hedge fund Moon Pursuit Capital, agreed that politics alone will not cut that link. “Until then, liquidity conditions and Federal Reserve policy will likely remain the dominant drivers,” Olujobi said. The real change, she added, would be Bitcoin “attracting capital during periods of equity market weakness.”
“Crypto” May Stop Being One Trade
Renna Ba, operations director at Ethereum network Morph, said the bigger shift is not Bitcoin breaking away from stocks. “It’s ‘crypto’ ceasing to be one asset class,” Ba said.
“Stablecoins don’t move with the Nasdaq; they move with the dollar, and businesses hold them to get paid and to pay,” she said, adding that tokens backed by real platform revenue have moved on their own this year while Bitcoin fell.
Also Read: AI Trading Agents Kept Their Cool In Bitcoin’s 29% Crash, But One Still Lost MoneyWhat A Democratic Congress Means For Crypto Rules
Kirkley does not see Democratic control as a setback. “Many Democrats want comprehensive crypto legislation,” he said. “It’s time for crypto to be bipartisan. The technology isn’t red or blue.”
Ba said big investors are not waiting on Congress anyway. “The SEC and CFTC are writing them anyway, and the stablecoin rules in the GENIUS Act are already law,” she said. “Builders pay more for the delay than allocators do.”
Olujobi said a stalled bill would not drive big money out. “If legislative progress stalls in 2027, I wouldn’t expect institutions to abandon the sector,” she said. Instead, she expects money to “concentrate in Bitcoin and established regulated products” and pull back from smaller tokens.
Where The Money Could Go Next
Kirkley said the market is “underestimating the value of the infrastructure that lets capital move efficiently between institutions, currencies and jurisdictions,” pointing to costly cross-border payments in Africa.
Olujobi sees a different blind spot. “One area I believe the market may be underpricing is the infrastructure required to support the next stage of AI adoption, particularly energy capacity and cybersecurity,” she said.
What To Watch
With the election out of the way, all three point to the same things: oil prices, inflation and the Fed’s next rate move. Those, not the new balance in Congress, are likely to decide whether Bitcoin holds its rebound.
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