Bitcoin Crashed Before SpaceX’s IPO Then Soared, Anthropic’s Is Next

Bitcoin fell 19% in the 50 days before SpaceX‘s record June IPO, then jumped 28% in the 100 days after it, and it is sliding again as Anthropic gets ready to list next week.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin closed at $63,463 on Nov. 14, down 24% from Sept. 30, about 50 days before Anthropic’s expected listing
• Over the same 50-day stretch before SpaceX listed on June 12, Bitcoin fell 18.8%
• Bitcoin hit its low 18 days after the SpaceX listing, then rose 27.7% from IPO day to Day 100
• Bitcoin now trades about 7% below its 200-week average of roughly $67,973

SpaceX raised $75 billion when it listed on Nasdaq on June 12, the biggest IPO in history. Anthropic plans to raise up to about $64 billion, which would make its listing the second biggest. Published reports point to pricing on Nov. 18 and trading on Nov. 19. Fathom compared the two run-ups using daily Bitcoin closing prices from Binance.

Also Read: Anthropic Chases $64B In Second-Biggest IPO Ever, Behind Only SpaceX

What Bitcoin Did Around The SpaceX IPO

Bitcoin closed at $78,257 on April 23, 50 days before SpaceX listed. By IPO day it was down to $63,580.

The selling did not stop at the listing. Bitcoin closed at $58,625 on June 30, 18 days later, 25% below where the run-up began. Fifty days after the IPO it was still about 20% down.

Then the turn came all at once. A sharp rally took Bitcoin to $78,338 by Aug. 21, and it closed at $81,178 on Sept. 20, Day 100, about 3.7% above its starting point. That was a 28% gain from IPO day and a 38% gain from the low.

How Today Compares

Fifty days before Anthropic’s expected Nov. 19 debut, Bitcoin closed at $83,624 on Sept. 30. By Nov. 14 it had fallen to $63,463. That 24% drop is already deeper than the 19% slide into the SpaceX listing, and the IPO is still days away.

Bitcoin has also slipped below its 200-week moving average, a long-term trend line many traders treat as a floor. It sits about 7% under that line now.

Why A Giant IPO Can Weigh On Bitcoin

A listing this big needs buyers to find tens of billions of dollars at once. Some fund managers raise that cash by trimming other risky holdings, and Bitcoin and fast-growing tech stocks often sit in the same portfolios. Once the shares are allocated, that pressure fades.

That is a theory, not proof. Other forces are hitting Bitcoin this month too, including Jensen Huang’s exit from Nvidia and doubts over how fast the Fed will cut rates.

What The SpaceX Pattern Would Mean Now

If Bitcoin traced the same path from its Sept. 30 starting point, it would reach about $86,700 by late February, roughly 100 days after a Nov. 19 listing. Measured from today’s price, a repeat of the 28% gain SpaceX saw from IPO day to Day 100 would put Bitcoin near $81,000.

The gaps matter, though. This slide is deeper, Bitcoin is below a level it held through the SpaceX run, and after SpaceX the recovery did not start for about two months. One past case is a comparison, not a forecast.

The Bottom Line

The SpaceX run suggests that the heaviest selling around a mega IPO can come before the listing, with the low close behind it and a fast rebound later. If that holds, much of the damage may already be done. If the macro worries win out, Bitcoin’s break below its long-term average points to more pain first.

Read Next: Bitcoin Crashes Below $68,000 And The Fed Could Keep It Down Until Christmas